Somalia / Al-Shabaab - EP 6

Following the progressive easing of restrictions on the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali security forces during the previous episode, the Security Council on 1 December 2023 unanimously terminated the arms imports embargo imposed on Somalia since 23 January 1992 (UNSCR 733), recognizing the progress made against the benchmarks endorsed in UNSCR 2662 (17 November 2022). Echoing the long-standing request by the Federal Government of Somalia, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in its 12 June 2023 communiqué by the Heads of State and Government of the East African block called for “the lifting of arms embargoes and sanctions that obstruct the full capacitation of Somali security forces to combat Al-Shabaab and other similar threats to national security”. During the negotiations leading up to the adoption of the resolution, African members of the Security Council (Gabon, Ghana, and Mozambique), as well as representatives of China, Russia, and the UAE also voiced their support for the Somali position.

On the same day, just prior to the adoption of UNSCR 2714, the Security Council imposed a new arms imports embargo on Somalia, from which it exempted the Government of the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Somali National Army, the National Intelligence and Security Agency, the Somali National Police Force and the Somali Custodial Corps in UNSCR 2713. The deliveries of certain items (specified in Annexes A and B of the resolution) to Somalia’s Federal Member States, regional governments, and licensed private security companies operating in Somalia remained subject to prior approval or notification, and post-delivery reporting. Noting with concern Al-Shabaab’s ability to generate revenue and launder, store and transfer resources to carry out terrorism and destabilize Somalia and the region, the resolution also added a notification requirement (to both the Sanctions Committee and the Federal Government of the Republic of Somalia) for IED components listed in Part I of Annex C and called on Member States to exercise vigilance with regards to explosive precursors and materials listed in Part II of Annex C. The remainder of sanctions provisions was reaffirmed (and an implementation assistance notice on UNSCR 2664 humanitarian exemption was issued on 6 February 2024).

To highlight the change of focus of the sanctions regime, UNSCR 2713 renamed the Sanctions Committee as well as the Panel of Experts from “pursuant to resolution 751 (1992)” (Somalia) to “pursuant to resolution 2713 (2023)” (Al-Shabaab).

Amidst the slowing-down offensive against Al-Shabaab and the adjusted drawdown plan for ATMIS, President Mohamoud convened a Somalia Security Conference in New York on 12 December 2023. The Security Sector Development Plan presented during the conference proposed a new UN-authorized multilateral mission under the auspices of the AU to follow the expected withdrawal of ATMIS in December 2024. The plans for the new mission, which was welcomed by the AU, were submitted to the Security Council on 10 April 2024, followed by a request by the Federal Government of the Republic of Somalia to terminate UN Assistance Mission to Somalia (UNSOM), which was established on 3 June 2013 in UNSCR 2102, at the end of its mandate on 31 October 2024. ATMIS completed the second phase withdrawal on 31 December 2023, in line with UNSCR 2710 (15 November 2023), and the third phase of the withdrawal was split between partial troop withdrawal by the end of 30 June 2024 and 30 September 2024, as outlined in UNSCR 2741 (28 June 2024). UNSCR 2748 (15 August 2024) confirmed 31 December 2024 as ATMIS exit date. While the post-ATMIS mission was endorsed by the AU in June 2024, the details of the mission, including its funding, were still being negotiated.

Faced with Al-Shabaab resistance and lack of security personnel, Somalia’s security force continued to struggle with the continued offensive operations against Al-Shabaab amidst the ongoing security transition. Despite territorial losses suffered by Al-Shabaab in 2022 and early 2023, the group, which has turned to guerilla tactics, has maintained its ability to carry out asymmetrical attacks and was making increasing use of IEDs during the first half of 2024 according to Secretary-General’s reports. The Federal Government has faced difficulties maintaining the recovered territories and consolidating its gains, while pushing through with the second phase of the offensive in the South and taking over security responsibilities from ATMIS forces. Additional concerns have been raised by the resurgence of piracy incidents off the coast of Somalia in March 2024, two years after anti-piracy measures had been lifted by the Security Council. Although the EU naval force in May rescued a cargo ship being hijacked and arrested suspected pirates attempting to hijack an oil tanker, the MV Abdullah cargo ship seized in March was released in April 2024 only following the payment of USD 5 million in ransom. In addition, rising concerns over ISIL operations in Puntland resulted in a US airstrike in May 2024.

2024 was also marked by increasing political tensions with Ethiopia. On 1 January 2024, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, Somalia’s northern self-governing breakaway region that declared independence in 1991, for a 50-year lease of a 20km stretch of land providing Ethiopia with sea access. The agreement, which was concluded without consultation with the Federal Government of the Republic of Somalia, was nullified by the Federal Government and opposed by the UN, AU, IGAD, and the League of Arab States as undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. The disagreement resulted in the expulsion of Ethiopia’s Ambassador and a call for Ethiopian troops currently part of ATMIS to leave the country at the end of its mandate. To ease the tensions, Turkey facilitated indirect mediation talks, which took place on 1 July 2024 in Ankara. The talks did not yield significant progress, and the second round of talks is planned for 2 September 2024.

Domestic tensions with federal member states flared over the constitutional review process, which also seeks to establish direct “one-person, one-vote” elections to be held by 2026. On 30 March 2024, Somalia’s bicameral Federal Parliament approved amendments to the first four chapters of the provisional constitution. The changes, which include the increase of Presidential powers, have sparked opposition, including from Puntland, which had stopped participating in the National Consultative Council meetings in January 2023 (but its President, re-elected in January 2024, declared readiness for direct talks with the Federal Government in June 2024). While the amendments have been approved by the National Consultative Council in May 2024, the federal Member State elections planned for November 2024 are surrounded by uncertainty, including regarding the election mode, as direct “one-person, one-vote” would create further delays.

Somalia will join the Security Council as a non-permanent member in 2025-2026.

Mandatory

Ongoing travel ban, asset freeze, and a targeted arms imports embargo on listed individuals/entities (including rebel factions) and charcoal exports ban from Somalia.

Existing arms imports embargo on all parties to the conflict (with conditional government exemptions) replaced with an arms imports embargo on non-governmental entities (including Al-Shabaab) at the start of the episode.

Travel ban:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/exemptions/travel-ban

Travel ban exemptions in effect:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/exemptions/travel-exemptions

Asset freeze:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/exemptions/arms-embargo/assetsfreeze

Carve out provisions for humanitarian actors apply, as specified in UNSCR 2664 (2022).

Arms embargo:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/exemptions/arms-embargo

IED components ban:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/exemptions/arms-embargo/ied-component-ban

Current and maximum number of designees during the episode: 20 individual designees and 1 entity.

Current list of sanctions designees:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/materials

Sanctions Committee and Panel of Experts in place. Designation criteria were specified and targets designated. Enforcement authorities specified (ATMIS).

Implementation assistance notices:

• Charcoal
• Arms embargo
• Improvised Explosive Device (IED) components

Panel of Experts reports:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/751/work-and-mandate/reports