Yemen - EP 2

Duration: 14-Apr-2015 to Present

Shortly after the 26 March 2015 start of the Saudi-led military intervention seeking to reinstate the Hadi government and roll back Houthi/Saleh territorial advances, the Security Council adopted UNSCR 2216 (14 April 2015) expressing support for the legitimacy of President Hadi and imposing targeted (individual/entity) arms imports embargo, as well as asset freeze and travel ban, on the Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi and the former Commander of the Republican Guard and former President Saleh’s son, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh. Although the resolution demanded that all Yemeni parties refrain from violence and unilateral actions that could undermine the political transition in the country, it singled out the Houthis in particular, on whom it also imposed a specific set of demands, including ending the use of violence, withdrawal of forces from all seized areas, relinquishing of additional arms seized, release of all political prisoners, and cessation of actions exclusively within the authority of the legitimate Government of Yemen. The resolution also expanded the designation criteria to include violations of the arms embargo and obstruction of humanitarian assistance in Yemen and called for the inspection of all cargo to Yemen when reasonable grounds for sanctions violation exist. Beyond calling on all parties to comply with their obligations under international law and noting the commencement of the campaign at the request of Hadi, the resolution did not make specific demands of the Saudi-led military intervention, leading to the subsequent perception of the document as rather one-sided.

The shift in focus of the sanctions regime to the Houthis had been foreshadowed by UNSCR 2201 (15 February 2015), which also placed specific demands on the Houthis but was not adopted under Chapter VII, and by the 22 March 2015 Presidential statement supporting the legitimacy of President Hadi and condemning Houthi unilateral actions (S/PRST/2015/8). Both documents, as well as UNSCR 2216, were drafted by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members via Jordan, which held a seat at the Security Council in 2015. In May 2015, the UK resumed its position as the penholder on Yemen in the Security Council and the influence of the GCC on Council’s statements began to wane. The change came as a result of a worsening humanitarian situation in the country (reaching the highest UN level of emergency, with 80% of the population in need of some humanitarian aid, by mid-2015) and the hardening of negotiating positions of the two sides of the conflict. The intensification of fighting following the internationalization of the conflict and the de facto naval blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition, claiming to act under the authorization of UNSCR 2216, significantly hindered the delivery of humanitarian assistance and commercial goods, including basic commodities such as food and fuel, to Yemen. Since then, the focus of the Security Council has been primarily on supporting the mediation efforts of the UN Special Envoy (Ould Cheikh Ahmed was appointed on 25 April 2015 to replace Jamal Benomar who resigned on 15 April 2015), encouraging humanitarian pauses, and renewed negotiations without preconditions, rather than pursuing further sanctions measures.

Since the beginning of the intervention, significant progress on UN-led mediation was hindered by the availability of regional support for the two sides of the conflict (Iran provided limited support to Houthis, while Saudi Arabia and the rest of the coalition backed exiled Hadi) and the military developments on the ground. During the initial phase of the conflict, when the Houthi/Saleh forces continued to expand southwards and the Hadi government enjoyed strong international support, the parties refused to meet face-to-face and participated in the June 2015 UN-sponsored talks in Geneva primarily to make demands. The situation changed substantially in July 2015 after the Saudi-led coalition recaptured Aden, which presented the first Houthi/Saleh first major military defeat and led to the return of the exiled President Hadi and the subsequent establishment of two competing governments on Yemeni soil. In August 2015, the Houthis and Saleh's GPC party offered significant concessions in line with the demands of UNSCR 2216, including withdrawal from cities. Encouraged by the victory, the Yemeni government rejected the proposal and the Saudi-led coalition escalated the military operation by deploying ground troops to push the Houthi/Saleh forces back north. However, coalition advances stalled in September 2015, reaching a military stalemate and increasing both sides' willingness to negotiate. The parties subsequently agreed on a common basis for future talks (Muscat principles) and a new round of direct talks on a number of substantive issues was convened in Geneva in December 2015. However, no agreement was reached and former President Saleh subsequently declared that he would not negotiate with President Hadi but with Saudi Arabia, for the first time publicly announcing that he was fighting side by side with the Houthis. While fighting between the two loose coalitions continued throughout 2015, southern separatist and Islamist groups like AQAP and ISIL increasingly gained footholds in the south and the humanitarian situation in the country continued to worsen, largely as a result of the coalition’s de facto naval blockade. Although the establishment of a UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) to increase food and fuel imports to Yemen was agreed in August 2015, it did not become fully operational until 8 months later.

In the beginning of 2016, fighting intensified and the asset freeze and travel ban sanctions measures were renewed for another year by UNSCR 2266 (24 February 2016). The January 2016 Panel of Experts report documented specific instances of international law violations on both sides and recommended the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry. An earlier attempt to create an investigation body via the Human Rights Council, as well as a later reference to Saudi-led coalition's responsibility for 60 percent of child casualties and almost 50 percent of attacks on hospitals and schools in Secretary-General's June 2016 annual report on children and armed conflict, were unsuccessful.

A new round of UN-led negotiations began in Kuwait on 21 April 2016. In preparation for the talks, a nationwide cessation of hostilities was declared on 10 April 2016 and a De-escalation and Coordination Committee (DCC), including representatives from both sides of the conflict, to address reported ceasefire violations was established. On 25 April 2016, the Security Council issued a Presidential statement that welcomed the launch of the peace talks and the cessation of hostilities, calling on all Yemeni parties to cooperate with the DCC, negotiate without preconditions, and develop a roadmap for implementation of interim security measures, withdrawals, handover of heavy weapons, restoration of state institutions, and the resumption of political dialogue in line with the relevant UNSCR, GCC Initiative and Implementation Mechanism, and the outcomes of the NDC (S/PRST/2016/5). In May 2016, the Secretary-General strengthened the Office of the Special Envoy for Yemen to support the ongoing negotiations (S/2016/488). The Special Envoy Ould Cheikh Ahmed presented a roadmap to return to a peaceful political process in June 2016, but the two parties disagreed on the sequencing of the steps. The Houthis/Saleh's GPC wanted an agreement on a unity government before withdrawing and disarming, while President Hadi insisted on them taking these actions first (in line with UNSCR 2216 demands), threatening to boycott the talks if the creation of a unity government was part of the roadmap. On 28 July, the Houthis and Saleh's GPC announced an agreement on the formation of a new joint governing body, the Supreme Political Council, to replace the Houthi’s Revolutionary Committee ruling Yemen since February 2015, in direct violation of UNSCR 2216. Although the Yemeni government conditionally agreed to the UN proposal that postponed the discussion on the formation of a unity government until a later stage and the Houthis/GPC held off on establishing the new governing body, the talks collapsed on 6 August 2016 with the Houthis backing out last minute from signing an agreement (S/PV.8191).

Fighting subsequently intensified and the humanitarian and economic situation in the country deteriorated as the Saudi-led coalition imposed a ban on commercial flights from Sana’a and the Yemeni Central Bank faced depleted reserves and liquidity crisis, leaving it unable to pay civil servant salaries. In an effort to establish facts on the ground, the Houthis/GPC formed the Supreme Political Council and Hadi ordered to move the Houthi-controlled Central Bank to Aden, effectively fragmenting the authority in the country between two competing power-centers. In October 2016, the Special Envoy presented a new roadmap for negotiations that envisaged the replacement of Hadi by a mutually accepted Vice-President. Despite the pressure exerted by the mediator as well as the US, which together with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the UK formed a so-called “Quad” in July 2016 to push forward the Yemeni political process (later joined by Oman to form a “Quint”), both parties rejected the new roadmap. The UK, as penholder on Yemen, initially signaled its intention to pursue a resolution to support the mediator’s efforts but withdrew it following Saudi pressure even as the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Stephen O'Brien warned in late October that the country was “one step away from famine” and 80% of the population was in need of some form of humanitarian assistance.

In 2017, fighting further intensified and the parties’ positions hardened. In January, the coalition launched a new offensive to capture the Red Sea port of Mokka, while preventing the World Food Programme’s efforts to increase the capacity of Hodeidah, the main entry point of food, fuel, and humanitarian assistance destined for Houthi-controlled areas, through the delivery of cranes that would speed up the off-loading of cargo. The following month, the Houthis sought the replacement of the Special Envoy by the Secretary-General and Hadi the designation of Houthis as a terrorist organization by the Security Council, while the US – under a new administration – started to decrease its active pro-mediation role, focusing on targeting of terrorist organizations operating in Yemen and highlighting Iran’s support of the Houthis instead. The Special Envoy sought to broker an agreement on Hodeidah in May 2017, but was unable to meet with Houthi/GPC representatives and faced an attack on his convoy following his arrival in Sana’a. On 5 June 2017, the Houthis announced they would no longer engage with the Special Envoy, accusing him of bias.

The Security Council renewed asset freeze and travel ban measures on 23 February 2017 (UNSCR 2342) but otherwise remained relatively inactive under strong Saudi pressure not to shift the terms of reference away from UNSCR 2216. The situation began to change in June, when – following Special Envoy calls for support and frustration of some members with Council’s inaction – the Security Council adopted a Presidential Statement supporting the efforts of the Special Envoy, calling on the parties to engage in peace talks “in a flexible and constructive manner without preconditions,” and expressing concerns about the threat of famine, encouraging the strengthening of UNVIM, increasing the capacity of ports, access to Sana’a airport, as well as mobilization of pledged funds (S/PRST/2017/7). The Statement also called on the Houthis/Saleh forces to stop attacks on Saudi Arabia and called on all states to fully implement the UNSCR 2216 arms embargo “as required by the Security Council resolutions.” Although the resolution authorizes member states to inspect cargo coming to Yemen, it limits it to cases where reasonable grounds for sanctions violations exist and imposes a subsequent reporting requirement. The Saudi-led coalition routinely goes beyond the authorization and inspects vessels without providing reports or regard for their clearing by the UNVIM. The humanitarian situation was further worsened by a cholera epidemic, which erupted in April 2017 and, according to the World Health Organization, affected more than half a million Yemenis by August. The Security Council reiterated its concern over the threat of famine in Yemen in 9 August 2017 Presidential Statement (S/PRST/2017/14) and the Human Rights Council approved the creation of a Group of Eminent International and Regional Experts to monitor and report human rights situation in Yemen in its 29 September 2017 resolution (A/HRC/36/31). The group was created two months later, followed by the coalition’s agreement to allow the delivery of Hodeida cranes, deposit of $2 billion in the Central Bank of Yemen, and a contribution of $1.5 billion to 2018 Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan.

Although the areas controlled by the two parties remained largely the same over the last two years despite almost daily military clashes in 2017, the year witnessed significant political shifts on the ground. In the south, the creation of pro-independence Southern Transitional Council in May, following Hadi’s dismissal of Aden governor Adyanus al-Zubaydi, led to a series of defections leaving Hadi without effective control over the military or security forces, some of which refer to al-Zubaydi as their “president.” The creation of UAE-proxy forces in the south, further undermined Hadi’s control over “government” forces. In the north, the Houthi/Saleh alliance showed first signs of fissure in August 2017.A full scale conflict between them erupted on 1 December, following 2 days of clashes in Sana’a. After Saleh indicated his willingness to turn a “new page” with the Saudi-led coalition in a televised speech the following day, he was captured and executed by the Houthis on 4 December 2017. The Houthis subsequently moved to consolidate their hold on power, crushing or coopting Saleh’s network.

In response to ongoing missile launches by the Houthis/Saleh forces against Saudi Arabia, the coalition restricted its control over land, air, and sea ports in November 2017 and the blockade has not been fully lifted since. The January 2018 Panel of Experts report identified widespread violations of international law by all parties, warned that the Yemeni state has fractured into “warring statelets,” found Iran in non-compliance with UNSCR 2216 over missiles fired by Houthis at Saudi Arabia, and asserted that the Saudi-led coalition blockage was “essentially using the threat of starvation as a bargaining tool and an instrument of war.” The internal Security Council dynamic has also been shifting towards more active, critical, and balanced standpoints on the conflict under the weight of a number of non-permanent members since late 2017.

Despite significant efforts of the new Special Envoy Martin Griffiths (in office since March 2018) to prevent an attack on Hodeida, as well as the Council’s call for “sustained and full opening” of the port in its March Presidential Statement (S/PRST/2018/5), which it previously described as a “critical lifeline” (S/PRST/2017/14), the Saudi-led coalition launched an attack on the port on 13 June 2018, justified to the Security Council as “the most effective way to bring the Houthis to the negotiating table and the conflict” (S/2018/607). The attack began less than one week before the Special Envoy was due to brief the council on his new framework for negotiations.


Coerce

Coerce all Yemeni parties to reach an agreement and return to the implementation of the agreed upon political transition process (in line with the GCC Initiative and Implementation Mechanism, outcomes of the NDC, and the PNPA) and coerce the Houthis to end the use of violence, withdraw forces, relinquish seized arms, release all political prisoners, and cease actions exclusively within the authority of the legitimate Government of Yemen.

Constrain

Constrain all Yemeni parties from engaging in unilateral actions undermining the political transition in Yemen.

Signal

Signal support for the agreed upon transition process, legitimacy of President Hadi, and international humanitarian and human rights law.


Mandatory

Ongoing travel ban and asset freeze.

Newly imposed targeted arms imports embargo (on designated individuals / entities).


Sanctions from previous episode imposed for a limited time period (1 year) and renewed periodically. Newly imposed targeted arms imports embargo in place indefinitely. Sanctions Committee and Panel of Experts in place. Designation criteria were specified and targets designated (current and maximum number of designees during the episode – 5 individual designees). Enforcement authorities specified.


Coercion

Ineffective

Policy outcome

Despite participating in UN-mediated consultations, there was little progress on returning to the agreed upon political transition or reaching a new political agreement. The Houthis repeatedly offered significant concessions in line with the UNSCR 2216 demands but did not comply with them or agree to any of the proposed agreements; President Hadi, for the most part, refused to negotiate without preconditions. Both preferred to improve their positions militarily.

Sanctions contribution

Introduction of targeted arms embargo had little effect on conflict dynamics or parties’ decision to engage in negotiations. International backing, military developments on the ground, and UN-led mediation efforts were more important to the outcome.

Constraint

Ineffective

Policy outcome

Fighting between the Houthis (and until December 2017 also allied Saleh forces) and the various Yemeni anti-Houthi forces, backed by the Saudi-led military intervention, continued and both parties tried to influence the conditions for returning to talks regarding the transition process through unilateral actions and the use of force.

Sanctions contribution

Military developments and a more balanced push on both sides to return to talks without preconditions via the mediation efforts of the UN Special Envoy were more significant in constraining unilateral actions and influencing parties' positions on returning to the political process than sanctions.

Signaling

Ineffective

Policy outcome

The need to return to previously agreed upon political transition and comply with international law were articulated, but the subsequent use of UNSCR 2216 by the Saudi-led coalition to justify its naval blockade (which contributed to the worsening humanitarian situation in Yemen) and muted criticism of the coalition's humanitarian law violations diffused the signal. Legitimacy of President Hadi was clearly articulated but his domestic support has become virtually non-existent.

Sanctions contribution

Mediation efforts to reach an agreement and negotiate humanitarian pauses by the UN Special Envoys and the results of military confrontations have been more important to the outcome.


Increase in human rights violations, increase in international enforcement capacity, humanitarian consequences, decline in the credibility and/or legitimacy of UN Security Council.


14-04-2015

Substantive

  • Lists Houthis specific demands.
  • Imposes financial asset freeze and travel ban on new designees (listed in Annex).
  • Imposes arms imports embargo on designated individuals/entities (listed in resolution text and Annex).
  • Calls for MS inspection, if reasonable grounds for sanctions violation, and authorizes them to seize and dispose of such items.
  • Specifies that designation criteria may also include obstructing delivery or distribution of humanitarian assistance.

Procedural

  • Modifies Sanctions Committee mandate.
  • Requires MS reporting upon inspection.

24-02-2016

Substantive

  • Renews UNSCR 2140 asset freeze (until 26.02.2017).
  • Renews UNSCR 2140 travel ban (until 26.02.2017).
  • Reaffirms UNSCR 2216 arms imports embargo (individual/entity).

Procedural

  • Extends Panel of Experts mandate (until 27.03.2017), requesting its re-establishment by Secretary-General.
  • Calls for MS reporting.

23-02-2017

Substantive

  • Renews UNSCR 2140 asset freeze and travel ban (until 26.02.2018)
  • Reaffirms UNSCR 2216 arms imports embargo (individual/entity)
  • Reaffirms UNSCR 2140 and 2216 designation criteria

Procedural

  • Extends Panel of Experts mandate (until 28.03.2018), requesting its re-establishment by Secretary-General.
  • Calls for MS reporting.
  • Recalls MS reporting upon inspection requirement.

26-02-2018

Substantive

  • Renews UNSCR 2140 asset freeze and travel ban (until 26.02.2019).
  • Reaffirms UNSCR 2216 arms imports embargo (individual/entity).
  • Reaffirms UNSCR 2140 and 2216 designation criteria.

Procedural

  • Extends Panel of Experts mandate (until 28.03.2019), requesting its re-establishment by Secretary-General.
  • Calls for MS reporting.
  • Recalls MS reporting upon inspection requirement.